** these rankings and words are from March 8th but LIFE happens and things get delayed. Finally proofed and posted now. ***
Thoughts on this year’s overall class value
In the summer, the hope was the 2022 class could tread water with the 2021 Draft. The ‘21 class was stronger than given credit for, and I believe early returns back that up. (Always check back in five years, though.)
A few factors have contributed to a lull in the excitement for this year’s draft, and change of opinion. The first reason, plainly, is lack of Canadian names of interest. It, frankly, is not the typical Canadian year. That can always frame the draft in media and many’s mind; perception is spoon fed.
Another hypothesis I kick around is the time kept off the ice is catching up to the players. The 2019-20, 2020-21, and even 2021-22 seasons have all contended with interruptions to club, league, international schedules. This class on average missed more games over the past three season than the most injury-plagued controversial prospects of years past—the cancelling of this year’s World Junior Championship the cherry on top.
Stating the obvious - interruptions in three seasons prior to a draft will impact a lot prospects development and a lot of the opinions scouts form. Through no fault of the player, either. Though players who found creative solutions or avoided interruptions may benefit anyway. Could this be the root cause of some prospects inability to progress as projected in their draft year? It is possible. “Likely” in my mind.
Finally — it is hard to build excitement in the shadow of not only the 2023 class’s Superstars but the continually surprising and plucky previous year prospects shining and/or hitting professional and Olympic ranks. That is not a common context for a draft class.
Evolution of Defense
Nonetheless, each draft class has to be judged on its own. The Pre-WJC and subsequent rankings tweeted out reflect the fluid movements and reactions as I felt out the trends, player profiles, and my focus and strategy of the draft. My overall comfortability and perspective of the class is more molded.
My early sense is the forwards dry up earlier than usual. By the forties on my list, I am starting to think teams are better off focusing on high potential/reward defenders with the majority of their remaining picks. Defenders typically develop more after the draft than their attacking counterparts…which, looking at lack of development in prior years, may prove useful.
Also the metrics and standards we use to judge a successful forward are more commonly accepted and easier to pinpoint. When it comes ot defenders— there is much less consensus of what to look for, how to evaluate, and all that jazz.
That works out for me. Always love a draft with over 20 defenders I’d be happy enough to select over seven rounds. While this draft may not have many (or any) projected #1 defenders, it does possess what I believe are higher number than normal of intriguing top 4 possibilities. This includes last year’s un-drafted favorite of Will Scouch (@Scouching) : Lukas Gustafsson.
It works out in many ways. Defenders log more minutes, tend to have lower ceiling for cap hits, and in the new NHL are allowed more defensive leeway to wring out the most offensive, tilted up ice play the D is capable of — allowing more homerun picks to actually matriculate. We see annually in March and June Defenders have more trade value. Everyone is looking for dynamic defensemen. The Makar / Fox / Dahlin / Hughes effect is real and pushing the bounds of positions in hockey. But also all defenders have seen value raise. Right handed Defenders. Defensive Defenseman. Physical Defenseman. Break the bank if you are all three. People have divergent opinions about defenseman and will pay up to get their best versions.
Evolve from Basketball or Football (Soccer) ?
Some are eager to have NBA styled Point Guards patrolling the blue line. You see that in this draft class. CHL’s Ty Nelson and Denton Mateychuk could be mistook as wingers. I neither advocate for that nor think a concerted move to Point-guard style defenders would ruin the game.
I do still believe the better sport to mirror is football (soccer) and their backs. The similarities are a desire for fluid position-less puck possession hockey with continual puck and player movement. Not tied to lanes or systems. The main difference though is that in football backs are still keenly aware and focused on defense core values protecting the near goal, high danger areas. The finishing and volume offensive output is still moved through attacking players who have the better finishing skills. Get the ball up field quicker, get it in the hands of the handlers and finishers that are good enough they are tasked to do it up in the play under more pressure and pacing*. That’s the best way to build the best team — in my opinion.
* This is a point that is often left out in discussing hockey and use of offensive defensemen. Even the most offensive NHL defensemen like Makar and Fox are defenders because their offensive skills flourish when they are QBs, have all the play in front of them. Wingers in hockey have those same offensive handles and skills those offensive defenders have but can do it more consistently with less time and space, less help up ice with them. The way backs play in soccer better account for this different type of offensive skill, and where they need to defend on ice. Basketball is different from hockey where in basketball the best offensive players are guards and defend high in their defensive half. This is an oversimplification for more basic educational purposes but when more fleshed out and nuanced holds true the same.
This is nothing new. The Soviets and Anatoly Tarasov were preaching this, what, 70 years ago? The NHL saw it hit their ice optimized with the Russian Five in Detroit, arguably the best team to achieve what the New NHL wants to become, and is trending towards. USSR and DET did it during the brawnier and tougher expansion era and then the dead puck era of clutching and holding and two line passes. Amazing.
Read Hadi Kalakeche’s Dobber Prospects post on lessons from FC Barcelona applied to hockey scouting.
How the rankings are evolving
This is a two part section. The order of players and how that is determined is evolving. Also, the type of list / goal of said list at the end of the year is evolving. Let’s start with the players.
After a few rankings into the class early season bias bets are now being hedged by adjusting heavier for draft year performance. Cooley, Yurov, Kemell, and Miroshnichenko is one set of players to use as an example of a few areas this has happened.
Future season potential impact more than draft year performance but Cooley’s year continues stronger than projection of the flaws in his game. Weak North Am class helps here, too. Kemell is a scorer, which means streaks. If you like to consider PDO, Kemell was on a bit of a bender to start, and is in a drought now. Like most scorers, he is somewhere in between and will be judged on his potential to volume score by year’s end at pro ranks. Yurov and Miroshnichenko are struggling between the Russian ranks in the same way Aatu Raty and other Europeans have been before. The rises and falls reflect that. However, when time to final rank for the Guide, that may not be the case.
Process evolving
Originally the Whyhockey draft guide started as a compilation of public rankings, guides, resources and our opinions overlaid. A few years the guide attempted to stand up on its own as a take on the draft class. Like a McKeen’s, the attempt was to accurately rank the full class as best as possible regardless of bias, preferences. That evolved over the last three or four drafts into infusing more biases and preferences. A hybrid of traditionally documenting the entire class married with leaning into the inefficiencies Whyhockey saw and wanted to exploit. In most recent years, the rankings moved across the hybrid spectrum more towards aiming for every pick to exploit the inefficiencies in the draft, or catch a lucky faller.
As a result the Guide ranking totals tapered down and became more targeted, strategized. More big bets were made in the top 40. A greater importance was placed on finding unique talents or profiles in a draft class. At this point the lists functionally were put together to (hypothetically) go-to-bat at the draft table for prospects Whyhockey prioritized based on potential, skill profile, age, performance. Rather than the list being an index or educational catalogue of the larger draft class.
What will that look like in June, July 2022? That is a good question still to be answered. But it is helpful to remember the purpose of, intent behind the rankings. You may not agree with a ranking or order, or someone may not even be listed. This list is advocating the Whyhockey drafting preferences which is not the same as a ranking of all prospects 1-100.
A player may be unlisted because where Whyhockey would draft them they would not be available. Or they may be moved down inside their tier compared to others simply because at the moment, the passion or desire to draft them is not there. Or I may see an equal prospect I know will be available a round later with similar potential or better development team so I bump up another prospect more unique and harder to replicate in later rounds.
One thing I am looking to incorporate in the future 2022 guide is how to best frame work preferred profiles, characteristics as well as all the concessions and aspects considered that puts X on list and Y off list by Guide time.
Okay, okay… the Rankings
This is likely the last time you see a long, more traditional rankings list. Adieu!
Whyhockey Favorites denoting by *
Tier 1
(current Top 3 candidates)
1 Shane Wright C - Still #1. 200 ft player, makes teammates better, Production quality there too. I could see other #1s but right now no other risk is worth more than Wright’s Top 6 center safe projection.
2 Brad Lambert C/RW* - Lambert has highest ceiling in the draft for me. Game processing and offensive awareness are elite and arguably best in class. Dynamic, nontraditional exciting forward NHL craves.
3 Juraj Slafkovsky LW* - Olympic success helping right now but Slafkovsky’s strong draft season with uniqueness compared to other top 10 talents propels him. This is a safer bet if you are looking for a top 6 power forward with promise. But do not kid, size alone is not why he is here.
4 David Jiricek D - Best Defender to project at this point in time. Best being a mix of safe and skilled. Jiricek has been D who stuck out in prior years and I am not as down on his defensive game as most.
Tier 2
(Top 10 talents)
5 Logan Cooley C - It’s not that I dislike Cooley’s game or potential. It is that I see a red flag flaw that keeps him on the outside of Tier 1 — Cooley is overly dependent on using right side of ice and circling zone on backhand. Fine against USHL teens who won’t play pro, but NHL projection-able? Not only for creating offense as a pro but ability to play as center - which are the two main components of his value his advocates say.
6 Gleb Trikozov C/RW* - Trikozov reminds me of Panther’s version Sam Bennett. He’s all over, his aggressiveness bites his own team at times but when on Trikozov is dynamic and dominating. A month away from 2023 draft. Trikozov’s flaws are manageable with fine tuning.
7 Danila Yurov RW* - Yurov’s game and skill level is Tier 1. His draft year has been confusing enough I had to bump him back a tier. Outside Lambert, Yurov is the pure offensive forward I covet with the details he is adding to his game.
8 Joakim Kemell RW* - Kemell was the bias favorite to watch early on, when everything was gold. As much as cold streaks are part of scorers’ schedules, Kemell needs to show more this spring to get GMs to trust their scouts enough for Top 10 selection.
9 Matthew Savoie C - Savoie is peaking in the WHL right now. He seems to have found his good luck bender Kemell used to own. What’s his involvement level 5v5 in NHL? Can he play some center in the NHL given his style and size? Currently the answers to those questions have him at the latter half of tier vs top half.
10 Ivan Miroshnichenko LW* - Working his way back from lower rankings. His talent is overshadowed by the mainly poor games I watched. And that is unfortunately the consensus around player. Yet, he has stability and strength through his stride and the involvement without puck to live up to natural ability in North America. He may never come over, he may bust. But this draft class I’d send it. You usually only get this skill by tanking.
Tier 3
(last tier of clear to me first round talent)
11 Simon Nemec D - Smart defender with good technical tools like stick on puck, controlled gaps, and excellent first pass. Activation shows offensive potential.
12 Calle Odelius D* - Type of Top 4 D bias towards. Poised. Good or better at everything. Subtle, quiet, IQ and passing defining traits. Develop more pace and involvement to level up.
13 Noah Ostlund C - Fun and crafty playmaker. On right side of puck and in good spots for his wingers/defenders. High end skating and pace. Room to add Defensive acumen or carryign more to inner slot.
14 Jonathan Lekkerimäki C* - Cerebral and aggressive player. Can handle pressure on his back and protect puck in corners off rush, attacking net.
15 Lian Bischel D* - Whether you prefer “raw” or “unmined”, Bischel is it. Skating ability plus his size allows him to break up a lot of plays in neutral zone. Stick or body check, seems Lian goes for both. Offensive awareness and involvement are there but the refined puck handles are not. My bias pick for best potential D.
16 Liam Öhgren F* - Too good for junior but still learning pro game makes his numbers hard to appreciate. Ohgren is an optimal playmaker who has a keen sense of moving pucks through closing lanes and baiting defenders to open his own shots.
17 Conor Geekie C - Morgan’s brother will make his own name. The overall picture is promising. Good scoring knack, good hands, good enough skaing, great size. Some junior bad habits that worry me -- Always dusts off the puck once or twice too much.
18 Filip Mesar RW/C* - In games Ive watched, Mesar has done everything for his team. He's constantly winning battles, blocking shots, setting up teammates, leading rushes or backchecks. Real drive, hunger behind his pace.
19 Frank Nazar C/RW - Super slick. All over the play in a good way. Offensive highlight reel. Expect to go in lower teens or even earlier as Dev Program kids always have eye popping numbers and get tons of live viewings and press.
20 Jiří Kulich C* - Another favorite for me. Kulich has a mature understanding of pace and space. With the puck he changes pace and direction, protecting puck around his body. Without the puck he finds soft ice or fades behind defenders and pops out at the perfect time.
21 Elias Salomonsson D* - Raw but skillset and IQ are there. Passing, puck management best skillsets. Seen some rough film but it stems from awkwardness of growing frame. His defensive engagement and awareness is great for his age.
22 Pavel Mintyukov D* - Aggressive, competitive, physical. Active and forward with the offense. Such a smooth skater and strong presence that he dictates play in CHL. too many adventures on dump-in retrievals and breakouts, risky neutral zone steps, conserving energy are areas of concern.
23 Filip Bystedt C - Typical Swedish center Big frame, soft hands, high IQ and good teammate support. Bystedt’s unique selling point is being flexible to many roles and playing styles. He could support two offensive and strong link wingers. Bystedt could contribute still from a lower event possession, checking role.
24 Ludwig Persson C/LW - Speedy and slippery, Persson surely can project to the NHL off the rush and disturbing the forecheck. He has enough game processing skills even if it doesn’t always keep up with his feet. Can he finish at a high enough rate for NHL?
25 Marco Kasper C - Kasper is so fun to watch around the net and boards. He takes physical contact and pressure well, in fact it might be necessary for his playmaking game. His game may take off more in North American smaller ice, he’s quick reading and re-acting and quick to utilize teammates.
Tier 4
26 Jere Lassila C
27 Alexander Perevalov F
28 Kasper Kulonummi D*
29 Danny Zhilkin C*
30 Cutter Gauthier C/LW
31 Helmer Styf C
32 Seamus Casey D
33 Jani Nyman LW
34 Adam Sykora F*
35 Aleksanteri Kaskimaki C*
36 Vladimir Grudinin D
37 Isaac Howard LW
38 Jack Hughes C
39 Owen Beck C
40 Arseni Koromyslov D*
Tier 5
(would not read too much into order here)
41 Topi Rönni C*
42 Miko Matikka LW
43 Elmeri Laakso D*
44 Jimmy Snuggerud F
45 Lukas Gustafsson D*
46 Denton Mateychuk D
47 Mattias Havelid D
48 Kevin Korchinski D
49 Bryce McConnell-Barker C
50 Paul Ludwinski C
51 Ludvig Jansson D
52 Kirill Kudryavtsev D*
53 Joel Kjellberg D
54 Ilya Kvochko C*
55 Luca Del Bel Belluz C
56 Jagger Firkus F
57 Alexander Pelevin D
58 Filip Nordberg D
59 Otto Salin D
60 Owen Pickering D
61 Simon Forsmark D
62 Ty Nelson D